British Professor Chris Busby, criticizing the official methods of assessment, predicts 420 million additional cases of cancer in 200 kilometers of Fukushima in the next 50 years. Scientists are trying to estimate the total emissions of Japanese radiation disaster, using a global network of military nuclear monitoring. Meanwhile, the Japanese establishment in a hurry to declare that the contamination is reduced and not a threat to the Japanese. Government, ministries and Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan for the past few weeks have made a number of contradictory statements about the impact of fukusimskih emissions on the health of remaining in the contaminated areas.In recent years, their conclusions were wearing a calming nature: the radiation levels down to acceptable, food and drinking water in most areas usable.
Official estimates of the impact of emissions on the Fukushima Japanese residents are contradictory One was the controversial statement that Japan is not going to expand the 30 kilometer zone of evacuation.The head of its government, Yukio Edano admitted: "The fact that the radiation levels are high in the soil indicates that the long-term contamination may affect human health," reported on March 31 RTTNews.
At the same time, information JAIF (Japan Atomic Industrial Forum), April 3-4, in 50 km radius from Fukushima Daichi (in the village Litate Litate) registered dose rate of about 7 mikroziverta per hour, which is 26 times higher than the average natural background Japan - mikroziverta 0.27 per hour.The highest value was recorded there on 15 March 1945 mikroziverta per hour, exceeding the natural background is almost 166 times.
Illogical conclusions Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan (Nuclear Safety Commission) were published on April 4 , made on the basis of MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) of Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.
The Commission, in particular, said: "Observations of the spatial dose in a 20 km radius of the Unit 1 nuclear power plant" Fukushima Daichi "showed relatively high levels of radiation at different points.However, these levels are not likely to have impacts on human health. "
And although, according to Commission estimates, the individual territories, where the value exceeded 100 milizivertov per hour may approach the shelter index (indoor sheltering index): the value of which ranges from 10 to 50 milizivertov per hour, a change in the area of the shelter is not necessary.
The Commission's report states that the results of measurements of samples of dust in the air, made by April 2 and 3, the maximum radioactivity of iodine-131 was 47.3 Bq per cubic meter, and the maximum radioactivity of cesium-137 - 5.93 Bq per cubic meter.For iodine-131 is exceeding permissible levels. However, the Commission considered that its concentration does not affect human health, since the half-life of iodine-131 is about 8 days.
The concentration of radioactive iodine in sea water will not prevent use fish and seafood, has decided to Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan.She suggested that the concentration of radioactive substances in the sea water will decrease as their distribution, and as a result of mixing lower and upper layers of marine waters. And as iodine-131 has a half life of 8 days, the Commission concluded: "His concentration is reduced, before people start to eat sea food and fish."
In accordance with the measurements performed MEXT April 1, the maximum concentration of radioactive substances in sea water on the surface was 12 becquerel per liter for iodine-131 and 15.7 becquerel per liter for cesium-137, at depths ranging from 113 to 160 meters: 4, 80 becquerel per liter for iodine-131 and 11.4 becquerel per liter for cesium-137.
Drinking water contaminated with radioactive cesium and iodine, may be used, according to the Commission.Its report says that in the prefectures of Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi and other fixed maximum levels of radioactivity in drinking water by iodine-131 7.8 becquerel per kilogram, and cesium-137 5.8 becquerel per kilogram.Both values are estimated MEXT does not exceed the limit values for water and food set out for Japan.
IAEA bulletin reflect the contradictions in the official Japanese estimates
IAEA team to perform measurements on April 8 at 8 different points located at a distance of 24 to 42 kilometers in a northwesterly direction from the plant "Fukushima Daichi." At these points, according to a release from the agency on April 9, gamma rays ranged from 1.6 to 56 mikrozivertov per hour, and beta-gamma contamination - from 0,2 to 5,0 megabekkereley per square meter.
In its daily release of April 9, the IAEA reported that the day did not receive new data on contamination of food and drinking water.However, on 8 April, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan has announced that the headquarters of Emergency Situations has increased restrictions on the marketing of whole milk in seven locations Fukushima Prefecture, and the sale of spinach and vegetableskakina of Gunma Prefecture.
But even on April 6 of the IAEA in its daily release of information has led the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Welfare, which is in foods from eight prefectures adjacent to Fukushima Daichi iodine-131, cesium-134 and / or cesium-137 were either not detected or were below the allowable values established officially in Japan.
Greenpeace: Local authorities hide from people living outside the evacuation zone Informatsiyu the radiation hazard
Monitoring group Greenpeace has found high levels of radioactive contamination in grain growing in the vicinity of the Japanese city Minamisoma outside the evacuation zone Fukushima, said April 6 in his blog, Jess Miller (Jess Miller).
(Rihanna Theoule (Greenpeace) measures the radioactive contamination in the crop area of free resettlement)
In backyards residents Minamisomy in spinach and other vegetables have been found levels of radioactive contamination far in excess of authorizations for Japan. This gives cause for serious concern about the consequences of radioactive contamination to the health of residents outside the evacuation zone.Official information the Japanese government to this effect was absent. "At various sites Minamisomy plants were heavily contaminatedare satisfied so that they eat, "said Rihanna Theoule (Rianne Teule), head of analysis of food Greenpeace.
"Mistress of the site with contaminated spinach has told us that she had received no information from local authorities on radiation health risks from eating farmed her food despite the fact that state monitoring is conducted from March 18" - Greenpeace says the analyst.
Changes made by Greenpeace in different parts of Minamisomy showed levels of gamma radiation up to 4.5 mikrozivertov per hour, as opposed to relatively low levels of 0.7 mikrozivertov per hour, registered an official observation point in the city.
City residents have been warned that they may stay home or go on your own.However, as reported by the monitoring group Greenpeace, the pollution levels in Minamisome evidence of a significant risk to their health.
The Mayor Minamisomy, Katsunobi Sakurai, in a conversation with the head of Greenpeace expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of awareness about risks for residents, as well as clear warnings from the TEPCO (TEPCO) and senior officials."The state has not provided us any information that we could understand. We ask the government not so much about what happened at the NPP "Fukushima Daichi" how much of the responsibility for possible consequences, "- he says.
Group Greenpeace also reported that the official data about the radiation levels were too low and in other localities of the free zone of alienation. Thus, in the village of Tsushima Greenpeace has registered 47 mirozivertov per hour against the official 32.7.According to experts of Greenpeace, which suggests that the inhabitants of Tsushima can get the maximum permissible annual dose for only 24 hours.
Chris Busby: about 420,000 inhabitants dvuhsotkilometrovogo radius Fukushima develop cancer if they are not promptly evacuated
(Chris Busby, the British professor, scientific secretary EKRR)
March 30 British professor Chris Busby has published the forecast is made on the basis of a model of the European Committee on Radiation risk EKRR (European Committee on Radiation Risk - ECCR) about the consequences of the accident at Fukushima.According to him, in the next 50 years expected to be nearly 420,000 additional cases of cancer in 200 km radius from Fukushima, if the residents would not be evacuated from this area during the year.
200,000 additional cases of which will be revealed in the next 10 years. If evacuationtion will occur in a timely manner, according to the professor, the number of cases will be significantly reduced. In cancer are expected and any additional diseases, including heart and congenital conditions.
Risk model EKRR was applied to the calculations for the 3 million people in 100 km radius and 7 million people living at a distance of 100-200 km from NPP Fukushima Daichi. "
EKRR was formed in 1997 in accordance with the resolution of the Conference of the Group of Greens European Parliament to review existing and develop new models of radiation risk.
Official model gives a hundred times less than the forecast effects of Fukushima According to Chris Busby, Scientific Secretary EKRR, known for his work on small doses of radiation, officials are underestimating the impact of radioactive releases on human health Fukushima, based on the model of radiation risk of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP).However, it acknowledged the unreliability of one of its authors, Dr. Jack Valentin in Stockholm, Sweden, in April 2009.
Then he said in an interview that the ICRP model can not be used to alert politicians and governments of all the health consequences of radiation emissions. Concluded that the ICRP model does not give the correct calculation for the protection of the population was made and a group of international experts who signed the 2009 Declaration of Lesvos ( Lesvos Declaration ).
Professor Busby believes that for the prediction of impacts on human health Fukushima suitable model of radiation risk EKRR developed in 2003 and upgraded in 2010.It allows us to estimate the number of additional cases of cancer as a result of both external and internal radiation exposure of the population caused by the hit, including elements such as iodine-131 and cesium-137. This modelL, according to developers, has been tested in many situations, particularly when calculating the Chernobyl effects on the population of Northern Sweden.
Calculations based on a recognized model of ICRP yield forecast still only 2,838 additional cancer cases per 100 km radius from Fukushima in the next 50 years.
Radioactive release Fukushima approached the level of Chernobyl Japanese nuclear power plant emergency Fukushima, according to estimates of Austrian researchers, as reported by New Scientist threw for 10 days the amount of radioactive iodine and cesium, which are comparable with Chernobyl.
Gerhard Votava of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria and his colleagues from the Organization for the implementation of the Comprehensive Test Ban work with a worldwide network of radiation detectors intended for use in the event of a nuclear bomb.The detectors are equipped with supersensitive sensors that allowcatch the slightest amount of radionuclides in the air and, along with information about the wind give the opportunity to track the origin and quantity of about 12 of them.
Recent measurements and calculations based on data received from the worldwide network of stations, showed that 10 days fukusimskie emissions of iodine-131 accounted for 73%, and cesium-137 - about 70% of these same quantities of radionuclides released into the Chernobyl accident in 1986.
Thus, during the ten-day fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant were released 1.76 x 1018 becquerel iodine-131.Daily emissions Fukushima ranged from 1,2 to 1,3 x 1017 becquerel per day according to the stations in Sacramento (California) and Takasaki (Japan).
Daily emissions fukusimskogo cesium-137 , according to the station in Sacramento, is 5 x 1015 becquerel. Chernobyl also threw 8,5 × 1016 becquerel just 10 days.
The fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the atmosphere were a wide range of radioactive materials, including components of the fuel.Fukushima Daichi threw mostly volatile elements such as radioactive iodine and cesium. However, according to the researchers, the impact of radionuclides on human health very seriously. In addition, the NPP "Fukushima" is 1,760 tonnes of fresh and irradiated fuel, and an unknown number it was damaged. In Chernobyl, there were only 180 tons. And yet it is unclear how long Fukushima will carry radioactive emissions.
The danger of radioactive iodine and cesium for a person Iodine-131 and cesium-137 are a serious threat to human health.The human body can easily absorb them. Iodine-131 is absorbed instantly and thyroid, undergoing beta decay, causing her exposure. Cesium-137 is absorbed by the muscles and can come only with the products of life.
(George Lepine, professor, Ph.D., a Chernobyl liquidator, Belarus)
George Lepine, Ph.D., professor, Chernobyl liquidators, commented to Bellona Web that the illiterate to claim allegedly after 8 days of siege, iodine-131 will cease to be a threat to human health, and cesium-137 - in 30 years.During this time, the number of radionuclides decreases only by half. Lepine explains: "It is believed that the element ceases to be dangerous when held 10 half-lives, but not one period.It is accepted in the scientific community. "
According Liepina a long stay in the zone of reasonable amounts of radioactive iodine allows a person to collect the same dose as the man, who was briefly in the area with its high concentration. Thus, according to him, Belarus is not very different incidence of thyroid cancer in areas close to Chernobyl, and distant from it.
"Therefore, in the first days and months after the fallout, radioactive iodine is considered one of the most dangerous elements, and this risk over time would show itself," - said the professor.
Bellona.ru
Links on the subject material:
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- Nuclear accident in Japan: the situation is worsening with each passing hour
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